When Bitcoin was introduced to the world in 2009, it was intended to revolutionize the way people could access and control their money. But that revolution has hardly come to pass. The cryptocurrency's tumultuous first decade was marked by scandals, missteps, and wild price swings—its second has been no different.
Large-scale fraud, theft, regulatory battles, and more continue to make the headlines. It's difficult to say what will happen over the next decade, but here are some thoughts about Bitcoin's future.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, is most likely to remain popular with speculators over the next decade.
- Bitcoin, the blockchain, will probably continue to be developed to address long-standing issues like scalability and security.
- Halvings are an important part of Bitcoin's future because they have historically influenced price increases.
- There is no way to accurately predict what will happen to Bitcoin in the next 10 years.
Bitcoin's Future
While its price and popularity with certain investors are important, it's critical to note that regardless of value changes, scandals, and news, blockchain developments over the next decade will be the most important.
Issues regarding decentralization, scalability, and security are the factors holding Bitcoin back from more widespread adoption. These concerns must be addressed for the cryptocurrency to gain traction as more than a speculative investment. Bitcoin developers are working diligently to find solutions, but for the most part, they have been unsuccessful.
Decentralization
When discussing blockchain and cryptocurrencies, the term decentralization covers two aspects: who holds the majority of the cryptocurrency and where the blockchain is concentrated.
Bitcoin the Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin—the cryptocurrency—was designed to be decentralized, controlled by the public, and away from the hands of entities that would collect and control it. However, more and more bitcoins are being purchased by businesses and others with the resources, slowly increasing their holdings.
In 2024, the majority of bitcoins are still out in the wild, so to speak—but over time, and if they continue to be treated as a speculative investment and store of value, these large entities will likely keep growing their holdings. Bitcoin (the cryptocurrency) is thus likely to become more centralized as its future supply dwindles.
Bitcoin the Blockchain
The Bitcoin blockchain was supposed to be widely distributed to the public, but because Bitcoin's market value climbed so rapidly, large-scale mining operations appeared. These farms made it difficult for individuals to participate in the blockchain process. The farms now control the mining market, but there is something more important.
These large-scale operations control a significant amount of the network's processing power. These businesses create pools and attract individuals looking for mining rewards, thus controlling a substantial portion of the blockchain.
In April 2024, 10 mining pools controlled more than 91% of the Bitcoin network hashrate, and over 80% of the network's miners belonged to three mining pools.
With this much control asserted over the network, it's safe to say that the Bitcoin blockchain is more centralized than decentralized. It is still a distributed ledger, but there is a possibility that several large entities could decide to exert control.
Scalability Challenges
Blockchain scaling refers to its ability to handle more or less traffic in stride. The protocol limits stubbornly maintained by the Bitcoin community and developers have prevented its blockchain from handling all of the transactions that are occurring.
Years after its introduction, Bitcoin can still only handle a maximum of seven transactions per second. In April 2024, the blockchain averaged about five transactions per second. Compared to other blockchains that claim the ability to process more than 3,400 transactions per second, Bitcoin is beyond slow.
This issue has resulted in a long history of attempts to reduce transaction fees and long confirmation times. Most of these attempts have been conducted by third parties designing second-layer solutions, which allow for scaling but decrease security and decentralization.
For instance, the Lightning Network, one such solution, promised to do most of the work for the Bitcoin blockchain. The work is done on another blockchain and sends the results to Bitcoin, but this decreases Bitcoin's security and decentralization. The network was also supposed to result in lower fees and faster processing times—some traffic initially appeared, but it wasn't as popular as anticipated.
Security Issues
Security is always a concern for users and investors. Scammers, hackers, and thieves continue to target people who hold bitcoin. In general, decentralized finance applications and businesses that hold private keys for their customers are the primary targets. The blockchain itself remains secure, but it is the interfaces used to access keys and the blockchain that are the issues.
Ransomware and scams are two of the most active methods for stealing cryptocurrency—according to some analysts, they are likely to remain the preferred method.
Regulatory Developments
Following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, more investors have access to Bitcoin, which could lead to ETFs for other cryptocurrencies or digital assets. It's difficult to say what regulations will emerge in the next decade because stances and lawmakers' opinions can change.
For example, the Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Ripple for offering unregistered securities ended in October 2023, with a judge essentially stating that cryptocurrency was a security when sold to institutions but not on exchanges.
In March 2024, a judge ruled in another case that crypto insider trading on the secondary market was trading securities.
What these rulings mean for the industry remains to be seen, as the evolving cryptocurrency regulatory environment is likely to continue as courts set precedents over the next decade.
Halvings
A halving is when the blockchain automatically cuts the block reward in half. There have been four halvings as of April 2024, the last of which occurred on April 19, 2024.
Halvings historically have affected prices, with Bitcoin's price generally trending upwards afterward. This is believed to be due to a decrease in the available supply of unreleased Bitcoin accompanied by an increase in demand.
Halvings will continue about every four years throughout Bitcoin's lifetime until sometime in 2140, each time reducing the amount being introduced. With that in mind, Bitcoin's price, all else remaining equal, should continue to increase over time—but there are no guarantees.
What Could Bitcoin Be Worth in 10 Years?
Predictions about prices vary by analyst, with some claiming that prices could rise into the millions. However, it is just as likely that it will be worthless.
What Will Bitcoin's Price be in 2030?
It's difficult to predict an asset's price in the future, as many factors can influence its rise or fall.
Will Bitcoin Be Worth Anything in 20 Years?
Predicting what an asset will be valued at in one year is difficult, let alone 20. Bitcoin might be worth millions or nothing.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin may or may not have a future as an investment. There is no telling what will happen to its blockchain and the network supporting it in the next decade. Bitcoin—the cryptocurrency—is likely to remain popular with a certain group of risk-tolerant investors; Bitcoin—the blockchain—will probably continue to be improved by its core developers to try and solve the issues of scalability and security.
Where the cryptocurrency and blockchain end up is anyone's guess, but for the next decade, the only thing likely is that they will both remain in the spotlight, subject to speculation and changes.
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As of the date this article was written, the author owns BTC and LTC.
