College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (2024)

Regular-season finales could shake up the NCAA tournament bracket.

Carter Bahns

One weekend of regular-season play remains on the schedule for college baseball teams this year, and the upcoming series offer one final chance to secure conference titles and favorable seeds for league tournaments. Kentucky and Tennessee battle over the coming days for SEC regular-season supremacy, and they are the top contenders to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

The staff at D1Baseball released its weekly projections for the NCAA tournament's 68-team field and selected Kentucky as the top seed, but with two weeks remaining until Selection Monday, there is plenty of time for movement at the top of the national pecking order. Arkansas, Texas A&M and North Carolina are among the fiercest challengers to the Wildcats and Volunteers.

The top 16 teams in the college baseball bracket earn hosting rights for the regional round, while the top eight national seeds are guaranteed home games through the super regionals so long as they remain in the tournament.

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Here are the NCAA tournament projections, courtesy of D1Baseball, for the final week of the regular season:

LEXINGTON REGIONAL / STILLWATER REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (2)

1. (1) Kentucky Wildcats
2. San Diego Toreros
3. Cincinnati Bearcats
4. Sacred Heart Pioneers

Kentucky holds a one-game lead on Tennessee for the No. 1 seed in the SEC baseball tournament entering the final weekend of regular-season play. Assuming both squads take care of business ahead of the postseason, their conference tournament outcomes could determine the top seed in the NCAA tournament.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (3)

1. (16) Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. Dallas Baptist Patriots
3. Utah Utes
4. Grand Canyon Antelopes

Oklahoma State closed April with double-digit runs in five-consecutive games then blasted seven home runs in an offensive explosion last Friday. The cancellation of last weekend's series finale, however, closed the door on the Cowboys' Big 12 title hopes.

KNOXVILLE REGIONAL / CHARLOTTESVILLE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (4)

1. (2) Tennessee Volunteers
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. Xavier Musketeers
4. Bryant Bulldogs

With the ideal balance of elite offense and pitching, this Tennessee team has just as much of a shot at the national title as the recent star-studded squads Tony Vitello put together in the Vols' rise to prominence. A regular-season SEC title is still on the table for the nation's top-ranked squad.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (5)

1. (15) Virginia Cavaliers
2. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
4. Columbia Lions

Pitching has been an adventure for Virginia as Evan Blanco is the only hurler with more than seven starts on the year, and his ERA stands at a modest 4.21 entering the final weekend. The Cavaliers' bats, which rank fifth nationally in runs and third in batting average, cannot afford to go cold.

FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL / STARKVILLE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (6)

1. (3) Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
3. Kansas State Wildcats
4. New Mexico Lobos

Hagen Smith is college baseball's most electric pitchers and stands on the verge of rewriting the Arkansas history books. His 1.65 ERA leads the nation, and he is just shy of pole position in wins (9) and strikeouts (136). Smith headlines a loaded Razorbacks roster for which anything shy of a national title would be a disappointment.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (7)

1. (14) Mississippi State Bulldogs
2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
3. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
4. Lamar Cardinals

Top Mississippi State pitcher Nate Dohm returned this week from injury, giving the Bulldogs a lift ahead of postseason play. Chris Lemonis' squad opened the year at No. 13 in the preseason SEC poll but could make tournament noise if Dohm is stretched back out to full strength ahead of regionals.

COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL / CORVALLIS REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (8)

1. (4) Texas A&M Aggies
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
4. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

A potential regional battle between in-state rivals Texas A&M and Texas would not be possible next year as the Longhorns enter the SEC, but it may be a treat to the college baseball world in 2024.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (9)

1. (13) Oregon State Beavers
2. UConn Huskies
3. TCU Horned Frogs
4. Saint Louis Billikens

Pitching depth and uncharacteristic defense are the chief concerns for Oregon State, but the Beavers have the offensive firepower and elite top-of-the-rotation talent necessary to beat anyone. Australia native Travis Bazzana is now the program's all-time hits and home runs leader and will be one of the biggest stars of the NCAA tournament.

CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL / GREENVILLE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (10)

1. (5) North Carolina Tar Heels
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
4. Fairfield Stags

UNC swept Louisville to clinch the Coastal Division title and has now won 10 of its last 11 games entering a massive rivalry series against Duke. If the Tar Heels go on the road and take at least two of three, they would almost certainly lock up the right to host both a regional and super regional.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (11)

1. (12) East Carolina Pirates
2. Duke Blue Devils
3. UNC Greensboro Spartans
4. High Point Panthers

East Carolina ranks in the top 20 nationally in both batting average and ERA, and it is the latter in which the Pirates truly shine with their No. 3-ranked mark of 3.78. Staff ace Trey Yesavage will be one of the top college arms taken in the MLB Draft with his nasty four-pitch mix.

CLEMSON REGIONAL / TERRE HAUTE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (12)

1. (6) Clemson Tigers
2. South Carolina Gameco*cks
3. Charleston Cougars
4. Wright State Raiders

Last weekend was a rough one for Clemson, which lost its first series in a month in ugly fashion. Wake Forest run-ruled the Tigers in the finale to complete a three-game sweep and send Erik Bakich's team falling down the national rankings. The overall body of work, though, is still plenty good enough for a top-eight national seed.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (13)

1. (11) Indiana State Sycamores
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Illinois Fighting Illini
4. Bowling Green Falcons

Arizona faces a significant RPI road block at No. 27 nationally but still has a chance to host a regional. This weekend's home series against Oregon State will not only decide the Pac-12 regular-season championship but would also give the Wildcats a major résumé boost should they take two or three from the Beavers.

ATHENS REGIONAL / NORMAN REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (14)

1. (7) Georgia Bulldogs
2. NC State Wolfpack
3. UCF Knights
4. Austin Peay Governors

Anyone unfamiliar with Charlie Condon will know his name by the end of the NCAA tournament. The potential No. 1 overall draft pick has been sensational for Georgia during an awe-inspiring year in which he leads college baseball in batting average (.454), OPS (1.649) and home runs (34).

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (15)

1. (10) Oklahoma Sooners
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
3. Northeastern Huskies
4. Little Rock Trojans

RPI (No. 16) suggests Oklahoma is closer to the hosting bubble than to the top-eight seed bubble, but it would be difficult for the selection committee to hold the Big 12 champion too far down the pecking order.

WINSTON-SALEM REGIONAL / TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (16)

1. (8) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2. Oregon Ducks
3. Vanderbilt Commodores
4. Army Black Knights

Wake Forest may not be quite the offensive machine it was last year en route to the No. 1 overall seed, but it still mashes the ball and ranks No. 16 in runs scored. Tennessee transfer Chase Burns does the heavy lifting on the mound for the Demon Deacons with his triple-digit MPH fastball and downright elite slider and is perhaps the top draft-eligible pitcher.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (17)

1. (9) Florida State Seminoles
2. UC Irvine Anteaters
3. Troy Trojans
4. Florida A&M Rattlers

Florida State seeks its first trip to Omaha since the late, legendary Mike Martinguided the Seminoles to the CWS in his final year at the helm. That is well within reach, and a series win over a projected tournament team in Georgia Tech may be enough to push FSU into a top-eight seed.

College baseball bracketology: Kentucky holds No. 1 seed entering final SEC series, per D1Baseball projections (2024)
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