College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (2024)

There was a big shakeup in the projected field ahead of conference tournament action.

Carter Bahns

College baseball conference tournaments are underway and already delivered chaos in their early rounds. While the results of these final contests make up only a small fraction of teams' complete résumés, they will go a long way in helping the NCAA Tournament selection committee determine which squads punch their tickets to the postseason and where those teams land in the race for national seeds.

The staff at D1Baseball released its weekly projections for the NCAA tournament's 68-team field and kept Kentucky atop the bracket, but movement at the top of the ladder could be in order ahead of Selection Monday. Tennessee remains the chief contender for the No. 1 overall seed while Oregon State, NC State and UC Santa Barbara are on sharp upward trajectories.

The top 16 teams in the college baseball bracket earn hosting rights for the regional round, while the top eight national seeds are guaranteed home games through the super regionals so long as they remain in the tournament.

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Here are the NCAA tournament projections, courtesy of D1Baseball, during conference tournament week:

LEXINGTON REGIONAL / STILLWATER REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (2)

1. (1) Kentucky Wildcats
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
4. Sacred Heart Pioneers

Kentucky had the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament but slipped in the regular-season finale to land the No. 3 seed. In turn, the Wildcats fell in run-rule fashion to LSU in their first postseason contest. Their form of late could be questionable enough for the committee to hold them out of the top overall spot.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (3)

1. (16) Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. Dallas Baptist Patriots
3. LSU Tigers
4. Lamar Cardinals

While Oklahoma State fell short of a regular-season Big 12 title, its offense was one of the very best in the conference. The Cowboys smacked a whopping 104 home runs this year, including seven in one game during their penultimate series. Each of Nolan Schubart, Carson Benge, Colin Brueggemann and Zach Ehrhard have double-digit round-trippers this year.

KNOXVILLE REGIONAL / GREENVILLE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (4)

1. (2) Tennessee Volunteers
2. UConn Huskies
3. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
4. Fairfield Stags

Tennessee swept South Carolina to earn the top seed in the SEC Tournament but immediately delivered a dud with a 13-4 loss to Vanderbilt in the postseason opener. The Vols still have the ideal balance of elite offense and pitching, though, and this is the consensus No. 1 team in the polls. The selection committee may very well agree.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (5)

1. (15) East Carolina Pirates
2. Duke Blue Devils
3. Charleston Cougars
4. Presbyterian Blue Hose

East Carolina ranks in the top 20 nationally in both batting average and ERA, and it is the latter in which the Pirates truly shine with their No. 3-ranked mark of 3.73. Staff ace Trey Yesavage will be one of the top college arms taken in the MLB Draft with his nasty four-pitch mix, but his availability moving forward is uncertain after he landed in the hospital with a partially collapsed lung.

COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL / TERRE HAUTE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (6)

1. (3) Texas A&M Aggies
2. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
3. TCU Horned Frogs
4. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

The Aggies will go as far in the tournament as their pitching staff takes them. With a 3.94 ERA and 583 strikeouts, they rank sixth nationally in two of the most important categories. The offense is no slouch either and features one of the top MLB Draft prospects in star outfielder Braden Montgomery, who has 26 home runs and 80 RBI to his name.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (7)

1. (14) Indiana State Sycamores
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs
3. Kansas State Wildcats
4. Bowling Green Falcons

Despite the return of top pitcher Nate Dohm, Mississippi State lost its grip on a national seed with a regular-season finale home loss to Missouri. Chris Lemonis' squad is in the middle of a nice SEC Tournament run, though, and continues to outperform expectations as the conference's preseason No. 13 team.

CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL / SANTA BARBARA REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (8)

1. (4) North Carolina Tar Heels
2. Oregon Ducks
3. UNC Greensboro Spartans
4. Cornell Big Red

UNC is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Tar Heels enter ACC Tournament play as winners of 12 of their last 14 games, and they are fresh off a road series win against rival Duke — which projects comfortably as a tournament team.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (9)

1. (13) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Northeastern Huskies
4. Air Force Falcons

The West Coast could have two regional hosts thanks to a torrid stretch from UCSB. The Gauchos ride an 11-game winning streak into their final series, and the emergence of Sunday starter Tyler Bremner is one of the catalysts behind that explosion. The midseason breakout pitcher has gone at least seven innings in all but one of his last six starts and tossed a 12-strikeout complete game two weeks ago.

FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL / CHARLOTTESVILLE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (10)

1. (5) Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Troy Trojans
4. Saint Louis Billikens

Arkansas is in the middle of a poorly timed slump. Following two series losses in the final three weeks of the regular season, the Razorbacks dropped each of their first two SEC Tournament games to fall out of conference title contention. Program strikeout leader Hagen Smith is college baseball's most electric pitcher with his national-best 1.52 ERA but needs the rest of this loaded roster to turn things around.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (11)

1. (12) Virginia Cavaliers
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. James Madison Dukes
4. Bryant Bulldogs

Pitching has been an adventure for Virginia as Evan Blanco is the only hurler with more than seven starts on the year. The Cavaliers' bats, which rank fourth nationally in runs and second in batting average, cannot afford to go cold.

CLEMSON REGIONAL / RALEIGH REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (12)

1. (6) Clemson Tigers
2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
3. South Carolina Gameco*cks
4. Army Black Knights

Clemson bounced back from its ugly sweep at the hands of Wake Forest with a three-game winning streak of its own and maintained the projected No. 6 national seed as a result. The Tigers were one of the first teams to reach 40 wins this season despite playing a very difficult schedule.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (13)

1. (11) NC State Wolfpack
2. UC Irvine Anteaters
3. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
4. Grand Canyon Antelopes

There may be no bigger stock-up team in college baseball right now than NC State, which went from outside the national seed picture to a borderline top-eight projection in the span of one week. The Wolfpack completed a convincing sweep of powerhouse Wake Forest before run-ruling Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

NORMAN REGIONAL / CORVALLIS REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (14)

1. (7) Oklahoma Sooners
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Little Rock Trojans

RPI (No. 14) suggests Oklahoma is closer to the hosting bubble than to the top-eight seed bubble, but it would be difficult for the selection committee to hold the Big 12 champion too far down the pecking order.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (15)

1. (10) Oregon State Beavers
2. San Diego Toreros
3. Vanderbilt Commodores
4. Wright State Raiders

The bats cooled down in the Pac-12 Tournament, but Oregon State smoked Arizona last weekend in a series win to lock up a regional hosting bid. Pitching depth and uncharacteristic defense are still concerns for Oregon State, but the Beavers have the offensive firepower and elite top-of-the-rotation talent necessary to beat anyone. Australia native Travis Bazzana is now the program's all-time hits and home runs leader and will be one of the biggest stars of the NCAA Tournament.

ATHENS REGIONAL / TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (16)

1. (8) Georgia Bulldogs
2. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3. UCF Knights
4. Austin Peay Governors

Anyone unfamiliar with Charlie Condon will know his name by the end of the NCAA tournament. The potential No. 1 overall draft pick has been sensational for Georgia during an awe-inspiring year in which he leads college baseball in batting average (.443), OPS (1.601) and home runs (35).

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (17)

1. (9) Florida State Seminoles
2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
3. Florida Gators
4. Florida A&M Rattlers

Florida State seeks its first trip to Omaha since the late, legendary Mike Martin guided the Seminoles to the CWS in his final year at the helm. That is well within reach, as is a top-eight national seed, after a 39-win regular season.

College baseball bracketology: NC State surges, Wake Forest slides ahead of Selection Monday, per D1Baseball (2024)
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