Who buys the majority of government bonds?
The current Treasury buyer base is diverse, with non-domestic buyers and the Fed serving as the largest owners of Treasury securities.
Japan and China have been the largest foreign holders of US debt for the last two decades. Japan and China held almost 50% of all foreign-owned US debt between 2004 and 2006. However, this has declined over time, and as of 2022 they controlled approximately 25% of foreign-owned debt.
The three largest holders of Treasuries -- Japan, China and the UK -- led the purchase U.S. government debt. Japanese investors raised their stash of Treasuries to $1.138 trillion in December, from $1.127 trillion in November, data showed. Their holdings were the largest since August 2022.
While some bonds are traded publicly through exchanges, most trade over-the-counter between large broker-dealers acting on their clients' or their own behalf. A bond's price and yield determine its value in the secondary market.
Bond purchasers are the corporations, governments, and individuals buying the debt that is being issued.
Buffett, Musk, and Ackman all think that short-term U.S. Treasurys are attractive. These bonds offer safety and high yields.
The greatest amount of U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, while the largest foreign creditor is Japan. China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar.
Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices. That's one idea.
Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.
- CANADA. 31%
- Other. 28%
- NETHERLANDS. 12%
- ITALY. 7%
- UNITED KINGDOM. 6%
- GERMANY. 6%
- PORTUGAL. 3.6%
- FRANCE. 3.2%
Who is the king of the bond traders?
Bill Gross co-founded Pacific Investment Management Company, PIMCO, and is known as the "Bond King." He created the first investable market for fixed-income securities.
Valued at over $51 trillion, the U.S. has the largest bond market globally. Government bonds made up the majority of its debt market, with over $26 trillion in securities outstanding. In 2022, the Federal government paid $534 billion in interest on this debt.
Global Central Banks as Important Buyers
Although the Fed was the primary central bank active in the Treasury market for many decades, global central banks began to enter the market in early 2000, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) launched a program of heavy buying at auctions.
Wealthy individuals put about 15% of their assets into fixed-income investments. These are stable investments, like bonds, that earn income over a set period of time. For example, some bonds, like Series I Savings Bonds, pay 4.3% right now and pay out the interest every six months.
Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
---|---|---|
$50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
$100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
$500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
$1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Why did the Treasury bond market crash in 2022 and 2023? Interest rates and the price of bonds have an inverse relationship. As interest rates go up, the market value (price) of bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it can cause the bond market to crash.
It seems that Buffett has softened his stance. Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes a significant amount of short-term bonds, despite its leader's infamous public position. Speaking to CNBC's Becky Quick on Aug. 3, 2023, Buffett admitted: “Berkshire bought $10 billion in U.S. Treasurys last Monday.
On a personal level, Buffett isn't a fan of bonds either. He has about 99% of his wealth in one stock—Berkshire Hathaway. That equity stake is now worth about $130 billion.
Just take a look at the enormous Berkshire investment portfolio that Buffett oversees. At the end of September, Berkshire held about $340 billion of stocks; $157 billion of cash, mostly in U.S. Treasury bills maturing in less than a year; and just $22 billion of bonds.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
Does Russia hold any U.S. debt?
The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to 33 million U.S. dollars in June 2023, the lowest over the period under consideration. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure decreased sharply to 3.85 billion U.S. dollars, down from 12.6 billion U.S. dollars one month prior.
Who owns the most U.S. debt? Around 70 percent of U.S. debt is held by domestic financial actors and institutions in the United States. U.S. Treasuries represent a convenient, liquid, low-risk store of value.
China sells the most US assets in 4 years, dumping $21 billion of US stock and Treasury bonds. Chinese investors sold $21.2 billion in US equities and Treasuries, the US Treasury said Wednesday.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
Beijing, vigilant in the protection of its overseas assets, has slashed its holdings of US Treasury bills by 25 per cent since early 2021 to the tune of US$280 billion. Its position hit a 14-year low of US$769.6 billion in October 2023, a decline commonly attributed to a conscious effort to diversify its holdings.
References
- https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/bonds-or-fixed-income-products/bonds
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/12/heres-1-investment-billionaires-warren-buffett-elo/
- https://europe.pimco.com/en-eu/resources/education/everything-you-need-to-know-about-bonds
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/cashing-a-bond/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/08/lose-money-bonds-losses.asp
- https://www.marketplace.org/2023/11/07/why-is-china-selling-off-its-us-debt-treasurys/
- https://www.apolloacademy.com/who-is-buying-us-treasuries/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sells-most-us-assets-223331094.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/11/successful-ways-government-reduces-debt.asp
- https://treasurydirect.gov/help-center/marketable-faqs/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/08/treasuries-fed.asp
- https://www.fidelityinternational.com/editorial/article/how-china-keeps-its-debt-in-order-e1feea-en5/
- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21
- https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/are-government-bonds-risk-free/
- https://www.newcapitalmgmt.com/news/the-largest-bond-markets-in-the-world
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-countries-owe-us-175515001.html
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/buying-stocks/articles/where-do-billionaires-keep-their-money/
- https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/pros-cons-of-buying-bonds/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/william-h-gross.asp
- https://www.dummies.com/article/business-careers-money/business/accounting/general-accounting/what-exactly-are-bonds-and-how-do-they-work-175226/
- http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-GRAPHIC/0100315H2LG/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primarydealer.asp
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/ee-bonds/
- https://learn.saylor.org/mod/book/view.php?id=53727
- https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt
- https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/countries-owe-china-billions-struggling-130000651.html
- https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/13/global-debt-is-returning-to-its-rising-trend
- https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/who-is-going-to-buy-bonds-pension-funds.html
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/does-warren-buffett-invest-in-bonds
- https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/how-do-fed-rates-get-funded/
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/bond-market-crash
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/forms/savpdp0064.pdf
- https://beckbode.com/blog/dont-buy-bonds
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bonds-buy-a1ba6dc0
- https://www.usbank.com/financialiq/manage-your-household/personal-finance/are-savings-bonds-still-a-thing.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bondholder.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/08/bond-market-basics.asp
- https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-calculate/price-of-treasury-bills/
- https://www.lpl.com/newsroom/read/weekly-market-commentary-who-is-buying-treasury-securities-and-why-it-matters.html
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/how-much-can-i-spend-own/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States
- https://lao.ca.gov/2007/bond_financing/bond_financing_020507.aspx
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/bond-market-outlook-fixed-income-2024
- https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-introductiontobusiness/chapter/how-a-central-bank-executes-monetary-policy/
- https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-America-owe-to-other-countries-and-how-much-do-those-countries-owe-America
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/bond-market-outlook
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/banking/ask-a-nerd-how-do-i-cash-a-savings-bond
- https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4075341-china-is-in-default-on-a-trillion-dollars-in-debt-to-us-bondholders-will-the-us-force-repayment/
- https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/ap-macroeconomics/ap-financial-sector/monetary-policy-apmacro/a/monetary-policy
- https://treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice?Denomination=1000&DenominationList=&InterestList=&InterestRateList=&IssueDate=1/1999&IssueDateList=&IssuePriceList=&MaturityDateList=&NextAccrualDateList=&NoteList=&OldRedemptionDate=782&RedemptionDate=10/2011&SerialNumList=&SerialNumber=&Series=I&SeriesList=&ValueList=&Version=6&ViewPos=0&ViewType=Partial&YTDInterestList=&btnAdd.x=CALCULATE
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/treasury-bond
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Topics/Details/bonds.html
- https://globalaffairs.org/bluemarble/china-foreign-land-ownership-explainer
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-going-buy-all-us-debt-rod-khleif-gdete
- https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/good-question-how-did-the-u-s-debt-get-so-high/
- https://smartasset.com/investing/pros-and-cons-of-treasury-bonds
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/low-risk-investments/
- https://time.com/personal-finance/article/savings-bonds-guide/
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/
- https://chinapower.csis.org/us-debt/
- https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/investments-and-taxes/guide-to-investment-bonds-and-taxes/L1RRzUja7
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
- https://www.quora.com/The-UK-owns-about-755-000-000-000-of-the-USA-debt-how-much-more-of-the-USA-debt-could-the-UK-own-and-what-impact-does-that-have-on-both-countries
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/the-ultimate-guide-to-bonds
- https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3259463/china-unloads-more-us-treasury-bills-odds-fed-rate-cuts-grow-slim
- https://www.quora.com/How-does-a-bank-lose-money-in-the-trading-of-US-Treasury-bonds-as-is-supposed-to-be-the-case-in-the-SVB-failure
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/1_year_treasury_rate
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stocks-or-bonds-for-warren-buffett-its-a-no-brainer
- https://collins.house.gov/media/press-releases/collins-china-buying-us-farmland
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/why-interest-rates-have-inverse-relationship-bond-prices/
- https://americanfundsretirement.retire.americanfunds.com/planning/what-is-asset-allocation/stocks-and-bonds.html
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-buy-treasury-bonds
- https://www.vedantu.com/commerce/debt-free-countries
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-buy-bonds
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/what-safest-investment.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp
- https://smartasset.com/investing/what-are-t-bills-and-should-you-invest-in-them
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-is-a-bond
- https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/how-to-cash-savings-bonds.aspx
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/11/5-reasons-to-trade-bonds.asp
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bonds-stocks-3f3058b6
- https://www.finra.org/investors/investing/investment-products/bonds
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/openmarketoperations.asp
- https://unacademy.com/content/general-awareness/list-of-richest-countries-in-the-world-2022-check-the-net-worth-of-the-us-china-india-uk-canada-japan-and-more/
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/your-guide-to-bond-taxes
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122914/cds-vs-bonds-which-better-investment.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/government-bond.asp
- https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-U-S-borrow-money-from-China-despite-having-a-strong-economy
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/selling-marketable-securities/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/keyplayersbondmarket.asp
- https://www.marketplace.org/2023/05/26/who-does-the-u-s-owe-31-4-trillion/
- https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt
- https://www.pgpf.org/infographic/the-national-debt-is-now-more-than-34-trillion-what-does-that-mean
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/interest-rates-affect-bonds.html
- https://www.clearfinances.net/countries-without-public-debt/
- https://www.quora.com/Why-would-someone-buy-a-30-year-treasury-bond
- https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/what-are-bonds/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/11/15/how-to-lose-half-your-money-in-government-bonds/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/where-can-i-buy-government-bonds/
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-surge-all-time-high-december-data-2024-02-15/
- https://www.quora.com/If-China-sells-all-US-treasury-bonds-what-will-happen-to-the-US-economy
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041515/treasury-bond-good-investment-retirement.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/168.asp
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-bond-etfs-to-buy-now
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226054/value-of-united-states-treasury-securities-held-by-russia/